«airBaltic» Preliminary Trading Update on Q2 and Outlook on Q3

Foto: airBaltic.com | Autors: airBaltic.com | 2025.06.27

Key Highlights:
•    Passenger volume: Q2 passenger numbers are estimated to increase by approximately 6% to 7.5% year-on-year.

•    Revenue indicators: Ticket yields are stabilizing; RASK (Revenue per Available Seat Kilometre) projected to grow by 2.5% to 4%.

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•    Operational efficiency: Average Q2 Load Factor forecast between 79% and 81%.

•    Capacity increase: ASK (Available Seat Kilometres) for Q2 scheduled network expected to grow by 1.5% to 2.5% year-on-year.

•    Forward indicators: Bookings for Q3 currently trending about 3% ahead of Q3 2024; yields and RASK expected to improve further.

•    Full-year guidance maintained: airBaltic continues to target 5.2 to 5.4 million passengers for 2025 and ACMI (Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance and Insurance) capacity to grow by about 20%.

The Latvian national airline airBaltic has today issued a trading update prior to its upcoming H1 2025 interim results, which will be announced on August 13, 2025. The update provides a preliminary insight into the company’s recent performance, key developments for Q2 and prospects for the summer months ahead.

Pauls Cālītis, Interim Chief Executive Officer and Chief Operations Officer of airBaltic: “In the second quarter of 2025, our operations across the Baltics remained stable, with consistent performance across our network connecting Riga, Tallinn, Vilnius, and the wider region. Operational indicators, including engine availability, continued to meet our expectations. With promising summer demand, we are in a good position to further strengthen airBaltic’s role in our core markets.”

Preliminary results for the second quarter of 2025, indicate solid year-on-year growth across key operational metrics. Passenger numbers for Q2 are expected to increase by 6% to 7.5% compared to the same period last year. This includes the already published passenger figures for April (410 000, up 12% y-o-y) and May (458 000, up 6% y-o-y).

Ticket yields in Q2 are expected to stabilize in the range of –1.5% to -0.5% year-on-year compared to Q2 2024, reflecting a notable improvement following the challenging market conditions experienced during the winter season.
In addition, RASK (Revenue per Available Seat Kilometre) is forecast to grow by 2.5% to 4% year-on-year in the second quarter, supported by stable demand and improved pricing. In turn, the airline’s production continues to expand, with ASK (Available Seat Kilometres) for the scheduled network expected to grow by 1.5% to 2.5% year-on-year, reflecting airBaltic’s ongoing commitment to strengthening connectivity and network capacity. The average Load Factor for Q2 is expected to reach 79% to 81%, including the already published results for April (77.8%, up 1.7pp y-o-y) and May (78.6%, up 3.4pp y-o-y).

Vitolds Jakovļevs, Chief Financial Officer of airBaltic: “Q1 was marked by continued pressure on ticket yields and fuel price volatility, making it a challenging start to the year. However, based on preliminary data, we expect to see improvement in Q2 compared to the same period last year, in several metrics such as RASK and Load Factor.

Current projections for Q3 also indicate a positive trend, particularly in yield performance. Forward bookings remain ahead of 2024 levels, and overall revenue indicators support our full-year guidance. At the same time, we continue to monitor geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, which may affect fuel prices and demand on certain routes. Nevertheless, market conditions and forward trends remain broadly supportive.”

With forward bookings for Q3 currently 3% ahead of the same period last year and capacity still available for late bookings, airBaltic anticipates the positive trend in revenue performance to continue into the third quarter, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions in its core markets. The airline expects ticket yields to rise by 6% to 9% year-on-year, with RASK projected to grow by 5% to 9% year-on-year. Meanwhile, passenger numbers are forecast to slightly decrease by -3% to -1% compared to Q3 2024, in line with a planned reduction in production capacity.

As a result of a stable Q2 performance and positive forward indicators for Q3, airBaltic maintains its full-year guidance of carrying 5.2 to 5.4 million passengers, supported by a 3% increase in network capacity and a 20% increase in ACMI (Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance and Insurance) operations.

airBaltic operates nearly 130 routes from Riga, Tallinn, Vilnius, Tampere, and, seasonally, Gran Canaria, offering connections to a wide range of destinations in the airline's route network in Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, and the Caucasus region. A complete schedule of airBaltic flights and tickets are available on the company's homepage at www.airbaltic.com.